塔里木大学学报

农业碳排放与生态环境密切相关，探究农业碳排放空间演变及驱动力可为合理制定农业碳减排举措、早日实现“双碳”目标提供理论参考。采用探索性空间数据分析和空间计量模型等方法，从地理区域和市域尺度对2000—2020年新疆14个地州（市）农业碳排放空间演变及主要驱动力进行研究。结果表明：从地区差异来看，研究期内北疆地区农业碳排放呈先上升后下降趋势，南疆和东疆地区农业碳排放总体呈上升趋势；新疆农业碳排放的热点地区主要集中在伊犁、阿克苏和喀什，且农业碳排放量在700万吨以上的热点地区数量先增后减。从空间相关性来看，全局Moran’s I指数整体呈现波动上升趋势，各地州（市）农业碳排放空间相关性不断加强。从空间驱动力来看，耕地规模化程度、农业生产结构、农村用电量和农业生产效率是4个增排因素，城镇化水平是减排因素。

Agricultural carbon emissions are closely related to the ecological environment. Exploring the spatial evolution and driving forces of agricultural carbon emissions can provide theoretical reference for the rationally formulation of agricultural carbon emission reduction measures and the early achievement of the“double carbon”target. Using exploratory spatial data analysis and spatial econometric model, this paper studied the spatial evolution and driving forces of agricultural carbon emissions in 14 prefectures(cities) in Xinjiang from 2000 to 2020. The results showed that the agricultural carbon emissions in northern Xinjiang show an upward and then downward trend during the study period, while those in the southern and eastern Xinjiang regions show an overall upward trend. The hot spots of agricultural carbon emissions in Xinjiang are mainly concentrated in Yili, Aksu and Kashgar, and the number of hot spots with agricultural carbon emissions of more than 7 million tons increased first and then decreased. In terms of spatial correlation, the overall Moran's I index showed an upward trend of fluctuation, and the spatial correlation of agricultural carbon emissions in all states(cities) is strengthening. In terms of spatial drivers, the scale of cultivated land, agricultural production structure, rural electricity consumption and agricultural production efficiency are the four increasing factors, and the level of urbanization is an emission reduction factor.