塔里木大学学报

新疆阿克苏地区属典型的干旱气候,生态系统脆弱,可利用的土地资源、水资源稀缺,环境污染与自然灾害的频发使得该地区发展缓慢并且制约了其城镇化的发展进程。本文利用生态足迹理论,同时运用主成分分析法,对阿克苏地区2008~2015历年生态足迹进行计算和对其进行主要驱动力分析。计算结果显示,近八年来,阿克苏地区的人均生态足迹由2008年的3.387 9 hm2上升到2015年的5.588 hm2,人均生态承载力由2008年的2.580 646 hm2下降到2015年的2.379 2 hm2,生态赤字严重增大,且生态赤字有增加的趋势;通过驱动力分析的结果来看,经济指标、人口指标、消费指标、土地利用结构均对生态足迹起到正向作用,是导致阿克苏地区生态足迹增加的重要原因,其中,人口指标和经济指标对阿克苏地区生态足迹变化的影响程度最高。

Xinjiang Akesu area is a typical arid climate,the ecosystem is fragile,not only the available land is scarcity but the water resource is in the same severe condition. the environmental pollution and frequent natural disasters leading to slow devlopment in the area,and restricting the development of the urbanization process. In this paper,the ecological footprint theory and principal component analysis method are used to calculate the ecological footprint and analyze driving force of Akesu in 2008 ~ 2015 years. The calculation results show that in the past eight years,the per capita ecological footprint in Akesu area increased from 3. 387 9 hm2 in 2008 to 5.588 hm2 in 2015,the per capita ecological carrying capacity decreased from 2. 580 646 hm2 in 2008 to 2. 3792 hm2 in 2015,ecological deficit increased,and the ecological deficit trend is going to increasing; through the dynamic analysis results,economic indicators,the population index,consumption index,land using structure have positive effects on ecological footprint,which is an important cause of the increase of the ecological footprint. Among them,population and economic development is the main driving force of ecological footprint change.