塔里木大学学报

本研究基于5期遥感影像人工目视解译获取阿拉尔市十一团土地利用数据，使用InVEST及地理探测器模型，分析1999—2023年十一团生境质量变化及其驱动因素，旨在揭示十一团土地利用变化对生境质量的影响机制，并识别生境质量关键驱动因素。结果表明：1)1999—2023年未利用地是十一团最主要的土地利用类型，面积大幅减少，而其余各地类面积均增加，其中耕地是增幅最大的土地类型。2005—2011年间十一团土地利用变化最为剧烈，土地利用类型的转变主要表现为未利用地转变为耕地和林地。2)1999—2023年十一团区域生境质量整体呈上升趋势，平均生境质量指数由0.366上升到0.430,以中等生境质量区域增幅最大；空间上南部属于生境质量低值区，北部为生境质量高值区。3)土地利用类型是十一团生境质量空间分异的第一主导因素(q=0.92),其次是归一化植被指数(q=0.42)。不同影响因子交互探测的解释力大于单一影响因素，以土地利用类型和归一化植被指数的交互作用最强(q=0.931),十一团的生境质量变化主要受到政策及社会经济因素的影响。研究结果可为十一团制定有效的生态保护策略和土地管理措施提供科学依据，有助于指导人工绿洲生态环境的可持续发展，促进区域生态平衡和资源合理利用。

In this study, land use data of the Eleventh Regiment in Alar City were derived through manual visual interpretation of five periods of remote sensing imagery. Utilizing the InVEST model alongside a geographic detector framework, we investigated the changes in habitat quality and their driving factors from 1999 to 2023. The primary objective was to elucidate the mechanisms through which land use alterations in the Eleventh Regiment influence habitat quality and to identify the key determinants of such quality. The findings revealed that: 1) From 1999 to 2023, unused land emerged as the predominant land use type in the Eleventh Regiment, experiencing a substantial reduction in area. In contrast, the areas of other land use categories all expanded, with arable land demonstrating the most significant growth. The most dramatic shifts in land use occurred between 2005 and 2011, primarily characterized by the conversion of unused land to arable and forest land. 2) The overall habitat quality in the Eleventh Regiment displayed an upward trajectory during the study period, with the average habitat quality index rising from 0.366 to 0.430; regions with moderate habitat quality saw the most notable expansion. Spatially, the southern area was identified as a low-value zone for habitat quality, whereas the northern area represented a high-value zone. 3) Land use type was established as the foremost factor driving the spatial variation of habitat quality in the Eleventh Regiment(q=0.92), followed by the normalized difference vegetation index(NDVI)(q=0.42). The explanatory power of interactions among various influencing factors exceeded that of individual factor, with the interaction between land use type and NDVI exhibiting the strongest correlation(q=0.931). The changes in habitat quality within the Eleventh Regiment were predominantly influenced by policy and socioeconomic factors. These findings provide a robust scientific basis for formulating effective ecological protection strategies and land management measures tailored to the Eleventh Regiment. They contribute to guiding the sustainable development of artificial oasis ecosystems, promoting regional ecological balance, and advancing the rational utilization of resources.