塔里木大学学报

为促进新疆农业低碳化，本研究借助Super-SBM、泰尔指数和面板数据固定效应Tobit模型法，对2011—2020年新疆14个地州(市)农业碳排放效率进行测算并对其影响因素进行分析。结果表明新疆农业碳排放总体效率水平较低，但效率呈稳定上升趋势，分别表现为高效率地区高增幅，低效率地区低增幅，其中效率高值地州(市)主要分布在北疆和东疆，效率低值地州(市)主要分布在南疆。从泰尔指数分析可知，新疆农业碳排放效率区域差异逐渐扩大，区域内部差异对总体差异影响最大；从各影响因素来看，城镇化水平、耕地规模化程度和节水灌溉面积对农业碳排放效率产生正向影响，人均GDP、一般公共预算收支比对农业碳排放效率产生负向影响。

To promote the low carbonization of agriculture in Xinjiang, this study calculated the agricultural carbon emission efficiency of 14 prefectures(cities) in Xinjiang from 2011 to 2020 and analyzed the influencing factors. The results show that the overall efficiency level of agricultural carbon emission in Xinjiang is relatively low. But the efficiency showed a steady upward trend. The high growth rate in high-efficiency areas. Low growth rate in inefficient areas. Among them, high prefectures(cities) are mainly distributed in Northern and Eastern Xinjiang. Low-value-efficiency prefectures(cities) are mainly distributed in Southern Xinjiang. According to the Thiel index analysis. Regional differences in agricultural carbon emission efficiency in Xinjiang are gradually expanding. Inter-regional differences have the greatest impact on the overall differences. From the perspective of the influencing factors. The level of urbanization, the scale of cultivated land and water-saving irrigation areas have a positive impact on agricultural carbon emission efficiency. Per capita GDP and general public budget revenue and expenditure ratio have a negative impact on agricultural carbon emission efficiency.