塔里木大学学报

为研究气候“暖湿化”背景下阿拉尔垦区棉花产量变化的关键气候驱动，根据阿拉尔垦区2011—2019年逐年棉花产量、生育期和逐日地面气象数据，运用统计学方法分析阿拉尔垦区棉花产量变化的关键气候驱动。结果表明，2011—2019年阿拉尔垦区棉花气候产量总体呈减少趋势，减幅为3×10^-10 kg·hm^-2·a^-1,以2014年受气候影响最大，2018年受气候影响最小。2011—2019年阿拉尔垦区棉花全生育期最高气温呈显著降低趋势，平均气温、最低气温、积温和降水量呈不显著升高(增加)趋势，气温日较差、日照时数和相对湿度呈不显著减小(少)趋势。2011—2019年阿拉尔垦区棉花产量的降低主要以播种-出苗期相对湿度的减小、开花-吐絮期降水量的增加、6月最低气温的升高、7月相对湿度的减小和9月最高气温的降低影响为主，以6月平均气温和积温的增加、9月日照时数的减少影响为辅。

In order to explore the key climate driving on cotton yield fluctuation under the background of climate warming and humidification in Alar reclamation.The key climate driving of dynamic change cotton yield was analyzed by statistical methods based on the meteorological date, growth period date and corresponding period cotton yield data in Alar reclamation area from 2011 to 2019.The results showed that, from 2011 to 2019, the cotton climate yield in Alar reclamation area was decreasing and damping was 3×10^-10 kg·hm^-2·a^-1, with the largest climate impact in 2014 and the least in 2018.From 2011 to 2019, the maximum air temperature was significant decreasing in the whole growth period of cotton in Alar reclamation area, and average air temperature, minimum air temperature, accumulate temperature and precipitation were no significant increasing and the daily air temperature range, sunshine hours and relative humidity were no significant decreasing in Alar reclamation area.From 2011 to 2019, the decrease of cotton yield in Alar reclamation area was mainly influenced by the decrease of relative humidity during seeding emergence period, the increase of precipitation during flowering and flopping period, the increase of minimum temperature in June, the decrease of relative humidity in July and the decrease of maximum temperature in September, supplemented by the increase of average temperature and accumulated temperature in June and the decrease of sunshine hours in September.