塔里木大学学报

为了揭示南疆骏枣疮痂病空间分布信息,采用聚集度指标法、线性回归法和频次分布拟合法对病害的空间分布型进行了研究,结果表明骏枣疮痂病空间分布型为聚集分布。频次分布拟合法进一步表明病害整体趋于聚集分布类型之负二项分布,其适合率为100%。10块枣园聚集均数均大于2,表明病害聚集分布是由于病原菌本身聚集行为和环境因素共同影响所致。根据平均拥挤度与均数的回归方程,得出了在不同发病率及不同允许误差下的理论抽样数。以上研究为确立病害的抽样调查方案,确定试验数据的统计分析方法和考察病害的形成提供了理论依据,为进一步做好病害的预测预报及防治工作奠定了基础。

In order to reveal the information about the spatial distribution of Jun-jujube scab in Southern Xinjiang,It was studied by using aggregation index method、linear regression method、frequency distribution fitting method.The results indicated that the spatial distribution pattern was aggregation distribution.By the frequency distribution fitting method,it was further revealed that the disease tended to aggregation distribution with negative binomial distribution,and the fitness was 100%.Average aggregation of ten jujube orchards was more than 2,which indicated that the aggregation distribution was caused by the combined effects of pathogen own arrogation behavior and environmental factors.According to the regression equation of mean crowded degree and average,the theoretical sample number under different incidence of disease and allowable error were acquired.The research provided a theoretical basis for establishing sample survey strategy and investigating the formation of the disease.It laid a groundwork for further improvement on disease forecasting、prevention and treatment works.